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目的:研究港币在澳门的流通情况,分析其流通可能受哪些因素的影响。方法:对澳门的港币流通情况进行定性分析,并收集流通量数据和贸易量、博彩消费收入等数据,在ADF检验和Granger检验后,建立多元回归模型。结论:港澳之间的贸易量、澳门从香港游客身上获得的博彩和旅游收入这两个因素将对港币的流通量产生正面影响,而且这种影响还会滞后一期;港币对人民币的汇率、港币对澳门币的利率差这两个因素对港币的流通量产生负面影响。而长期来看,港币在澳门的流通情况可能还取决于直接投资以及澳门居民对香港和内地的信心。
Objective: To study the circulation of Hong Kong dollars in Macao and analyze the factors that may affect its circulation. Methods: Qualitative analysis of the circulation of Hong Kong currency in Macao and the collection of liquidity data and trade volume, gaming revenue and other data, in the ADF test and Granger test, the establishment of multiple regression model. Conclusion: The trade volume between Hong Kong and Maucao and Macau’s gambling and tourism receipts from Hong Kong tourists will have a positive impact on the liquidity of Hong Kong Dollars and this effect will lag behind. The exchange rate of Hong Kong Dollar against Renminbi, The two factors, the difference between the Hong Kong dollar and the MOP, have a negative impact on the liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar. In the long run, the circulation of Hong Kong dollars in Macao may also depend on direct investment and Macao residents’ confidence in Hong Kong and the Mainland.