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就业问题在国民经济中占有非常重要的位置,是各级政府关注的焦点,是维护社会和谐与稳定的关键问题之一。西方经济学者曾普遍认为经济增长是解决失业问题的最有效途径之一,然而中国高速经济增长的同时还伴随着失业率的上升,因此文中基于2001-2011年中国1988个县的县域GDP和就业劳动力数量的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,在此基础上进行脉冲响应函数以及方差分解分析,以考察县域经济与就业两者之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,县域经济增长并不能带动县域就业的增加,相反,经济增长对劳动力就业有微弱的抑制作用。从要素贡献角度看,就业劳动力是经济增长的因素之一,但就业劳动力对县域经济增长的作用较微弱。
The employment issue occupies a very important position in the national economy and is the focus of attention of all levels of government. It is also one of the key issues for maintaining social harmony and stability. Western economists have generally considered economic growth as one of the most effective ways to solve the unemployment problem. However, while China’s rapid economic growth is accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate, based on the county GDP and employment of 1988 counties in China from 2001 to 2011 Labor force and panel data to build a PVAR model. Based on this, impulse response function and analysis of variance decomposition were conducted to investigate the dynamic relationship between economy and employment in the county. The empirical results show that the economic growth in the county can not bring about an increase in employment in the county. On the contrary, the economic growth has a weak inhibitory effect on the employment of the labor force. From the perspective of contribution of factors, the employment of labor is one of the factors of economic growth, but the employment of labor has a weak effect on the economic growth of county.