一、前言震害预测的目的,是大体估计在今后一个时期内可能发生的强烈地震作用下所造成的破坏情况,为作出减轻地震灾害的决策提供科学依据.震害预测的任务,是根据地震危险性和小区域划分的结果,结合该区域内的建筑物、构筑物和其他工程设施的质量、数量、类别和特征等来预测可能发生的灾害.我们根据模糊集合和集值统计理论,运用模糊逻辑和近似推断方法,以大量历史地 I. INTRODUCTION The purpose of earthquake damage prediction is to roughly estimate the damage caused by strong earthquakes that may occur in the next period, and to provide a scientific basis for making decisions to mitigate earthquake disasters. The task of earthquake damage prediction is based on earthquakes. The risk and the results of the division of small areas, combined with the quality, quantity, categories and characteristics of buildings, structures and other engineering facilities in the area to predict possible disasters. We use fuzzy set and set value statistics theory to apply fuzzy Logical and approximate inference methods to a large number of historically