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现代化变迁与社会稳定状况之间的互动性,使得社会稳定问题成为中国现代化节律、模式和成败得失的决定性因素。本课题组在相关理论文献、国家统计局2004~2009年统计公告研究、专家访谈的基础上,随机抽取1109名分布于广州12个辖区的城乡社会成员为有效样本进行了问卷调查。研究发现社会稳定是一个用于描述社会运行状态的包括生活幸福感、干群关系、安全感、社会差距、外来人口的五维结构概念,其中外来人口、社会差距、幸福感对社会稳定评价的预测力较大。社会成员对我国当前社会稳定程度的评价是总体上基本稳定,对未来社会稳定程度预期乐观,同时,不同社会成员群体的社会稳定评价有显著差异。
The interaction between the changes in modernization and social stability has made the issue of social stability a decisive factor in the rhythm, pattern and success or failure of China’s modernization. Based on relevant theoretical documents, statistical bulletin studies of 2004-2009 by National Bureau of Statistics and interviews with experts, the research group randomly selected 1,109 urban and rural social members distributed in 12 prefectures of Guangzhou as valid samples for questionnaires. The study found that social stability is a five-dimensional structure concept of life happiness, cadre-group relationship, security, social gap and migrant population, in which social mobility is assessed by external population, social disparity and well-being Predict power is bigger. The social members’ evaluation of the current level of social stability in our country is basically stable in general and is expected to be optimistic about the future social stability. At the same time, there are significant differences in social stability among different social groups.