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为更加准确预估土石坝漫顶风险率,在全面考虑洪峰流量、风浪壅高和波浪爬高各不确定性因素的基础上,提出了基于Rackwitz-Fiessler方法的漫顶风险模型算法.通过对土石坝漫顶风险基本定义的转化,引入调洪系数ρ和基于水位流量过程关系提出基于流量关系式的漫顶风险数学模型;在已知不确定性因素的函数分布基础上,采用Rackwitz-Fiessler方法迭代求解土石坝漫顶风险率.实例结果分析表明,该漫顶风险计算模型能较好地反映土石坝漫顶特性,模型方程相比单一考虑洪峰流量不确定性或风浪壅高及波浪爬高不确定性的方法更贴近实际且验证性好.
In order to more accurately estimate the overburden risk rate of earth-rock dam, this paper proposes a roaming risk model algorithm based on Rackwitz-Fiessler method based on the full consideration of the uncertainty factors of peak flow, storms and wave climb. Based on the transformation of the basic definition of overburden risk of earth-rock dam, the flood control coefficient ρ and the mathematic model of flood risk based on the flow rate relation are introduced. Based on the known distribution of uncertainties, the Rackwitz-Fiessler Method to solve the overburden risk rate of earth-rock dam iteratively.Example results show that this model can better reflect the overburden characteristics of earth-rock dam and the model equation can only consider the uncertainty of peak flow rate or the wave height and wave climbing High-uncertainty methods are more realistic and verifiable.