引言有关人口预测的研究已日渐受到人们的重视,其方法大多是从宏观的角度进行总体性、长期性的预测,这无疑对决策机构制订人口政策、控制人口增长是非常重要的。本文用Box-Jenkins模型对出生人口进行快速短期预测,可以看到这种方法对区域性计划生育工作、卫生保健部门制订相应措施有重要指导意义。 INTRODUCTION Research on population forecasting has increasingly received people’s attention. Its methods are mostly macro and long-term predictions from a macro perspective. This is undoubtedly very important for policy makers to formulate population policies and control population growth. This paper uses the Box-Jenkins model to make a short-term prediction of the birth population. It can be seen that this method has important guiding significance for the regional family planning work and the health care sector to formulate corresponding measures.