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通过对中国航空运输业务总周转量、客运量、货邮运量的月度和季度数据的预测分析,评价了Holt-Winters法和ARIMA方法在航空业务量季节性预测中的预测效果。研究结果表明,两种方法都有较高的预测精度,但季节性ARIMA方法要优于Holt-Winters法,使用季度数据和ARIMA方法的预测效果最好。
Through predicting and analyzing the monthly and quarterly data of the total turnover of air transport, passenger traffic, cargo and mail traffic in China, the forecasting results of the Holt-Winters method and the ARIMA method in seasonal forecast of aviation traffic volume are evaluated. The results show that both methods have higher prediction accuracy, but the seasonal ARIMA method is better than Holt-Winters method, and the prediction results using quarterly data and ARIMA method are the best.