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从湖南省宏观经济景气监测预警系统的数据显示看,经济仍在景气区间内运行,但总体上呈收缩态势.1980年以来,湖南经济经历了三个完整的经济景气循环周期,当前正处在第四个经济景气循环周期内运行.这一循环始于1990年下半年,截止1994年8月,湖南经济已持续在景气区间内运行了38个月,成为八十年代以来经济景气区间最长的一个周期.其中1992年和1993年上半年经济扩张力度较强,并在1993年7、8月间达到了第一个峰,在这之后力度逐渐减弱,并开始收缩.1994年二季度有小幅反弹,形成了本次经济循环的第二个峰,由于上升力度不足,进入三季度后又沿收缩通道运行.按照经济循环规律,本次经济循环的峰的形态已经出现,近期经济走势将进入收缩期.
From the data of Hunan Province’s macroeconomic monitoring and early warning system, the economy is still operating within the boom range, but the overall trend is shrinking. Since 1980, the economy of Hunan has undergone three complete cycles of the economic cycle and is currently at The fourth economic cycle of economic cycle of operation.This cycle began in the second half of 1990, as of August 1994, Hunan’s economy has been running in the boom range for 38 months, becoming the longest economic boom since the eighties In the first half of 1992 and the first half of 1993. The first peak was reached in July and August 1993, after which the intensity gradually weakened and began to shrink. In the second quarter of 1994 A slight rebound, forming the second peak of this economic cycle, due to lack of upward force, into the third quarter and then along the contraction channel operation in accordance with the law of economic cycle, the economic cycle of the peak shape has emerged, the recent economic trend will be Into the systole.