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在我国外资市场深入开放的背景下,外资国家安全审查势必成为主要的投资监管措施之一,但是我国目前的外资国家安全审查制度并不成熟,特别是缺失外资国家安全风险判断机制等实质内容。外资国家安全风险的判断更倾向于盖然性分析,科学合理的风险评估方法是采用威胁——脆弱性的互动分析法。对于外资而言,国家安全脆弱性的关键在场是敏感产业、敏感技术、敏感设施、敏感信息、敏感地域等,这些敏感点易受攻击或者损害而难以防范或补救,从而严重危及国家安全。外资对国家安全的威胁来源是外资有意图与有能力或有机会损害国家安全。西奥多·H·莫兰总结了外资的三类威胁行为,并提出了国家安全风险评估的三威胁分析框架。该分析框架并不全面,仅考察了威胁行为,而外资的威胁体现为三个方面:意图、控制能力、威胁行为。国家安全风险是意图、控制能力、威胁行为与脆弱性这四个因素的互动结果,因此,更可行的外资国家安全风险判断路径是四因素变量互动分析。
Under the background of opening up the foreign capital market in our country, the review of foreign national security is bound to be one of the major investment regulatory measures. However, the current national security review system of foreign-funded countries is not mature, especially the lack of the essence of the security risk judgment mechanism of foreign-funded countries. The judgments of foreign countries’ security risks tend to be more probabilistic. A scientific and reasonable risk assessment method uses the threat-vulnerability interactive analysis method. For foreign investment, the key presence of national security vulnerabilities is sensitive industries, sensitive technologies, sensitive facilities, sensitive information, sensitive areas, etc. These sensitive points are easily attacked or damaged and can not be prevented or remedied, thus seriously endangering national security. The source of foreign investment in national security is the intention of foreign investment and the ability or opportunity to undermine national security. Theodore H. Moran summarizes three types of threats to foreign investment and presents a three threat analysis framework for national security risk assessment. The analytical framework is not comprehensive, only examines the threat behavior, while the threat of foreign investment reflected in three aspects: the intent, control, threat behavior. National security risk is the interactive result of the four factors of intention, control ability, threat behavior and vulnerability. Therefore, the more feasible foreign security risk judgment path is the interactive analysis of four factors.