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投资风险分析(敏感性分析)是建设项目可行性研究申经济评价的重要组成部分,目前常用风险因素逐项替换的分析方法,由于对各因素的随机性质未加考虑,有时便不能正确反映出哪个因素更为重要,甚至会导致决策失误。本文提出了一种应用概率分析来确定风险因素重要程度的方法,可作为敏感性分析的补充,希望引起从事规划、咨询、设计、可行性研究的有关技术、经济工作者的兴趣,进一步加以探讨,以便提高我们的经济分析和决策水平。
Investment risk analysis (sensitivity analysis) is an important part of the economic evaluation of construction project feasibility studies. At present, the commonly used analysis methods of risk factors one by one replace one another. Since the random nature of the factors is not considered, sometimes it can not be correctly reflected Which one is more important can lead to mistakes in decision-making. This paper presents a method of using probability analysis to determine the importance of risk factors, which can be used as a supplement to the sensitivity analysis, and hopes to arouse the interest of the relevant technology and economic workers engaged in planning, consulting, design and feasibility studies to further explore In order to improve our economic analysis and decision-making.