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2003年以来,中国的房价一直处于快速上涨之中,持续、快速上涨的房价不但引致了大量的投机需求并积累大量泡沫,而且必然会减少其它产业的投资,所以房价持续上涨不但会威胁金融领域而且会威胁实体经济健康发展。本文从供给角度入手,运用博弈论工具分析房产企业在土地和房屋两个市场的博弈过程,揭示房价持续上涨的原因,并给出解决房价持续上涨的创新制度安排:把出价最高者获得土地的竞标方式改为归还政府房屋面积比例最大者获得土地,而政府把随机抽取的房屋以市场出清价格用于出租。
Since 2003, housing prices in China have been rapidly rising. The sustained and rapid rise of housing prices not only caused a large amount of speculative demand and accumulated a large amount of bubbles, but also reduced the investment of other industries. Therefore, the continuous rise of housing prices will not only threaten the financial sector But also threaten the healthy development of the real economy. Starting from the supply point of view, this paper uses game theory to analyze the game process of real estate enterprises in the land and housing market, reveals the reasons for the continuous rise of house prices, and gives an innovative institutional arrangement to solve the problem of rising house prices: The bidding method was changed to returning the land with the largest proportion of government housing and the government renting houses randomly selected at a market clearing price.