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为准确和定量的评估洪涝灾害对棉花造成的风险,减少洪涝灾害对湖北省棉花造成严重影响和重大损失,以湖北省3个农业气象观测站近30年的气象资料和生育期资料,对湖北省洪涝风险进行了研究。结果表明:洪涝指数与降水距平百分率和降水标准化序列相关性显著。洪涝指数的计算过程涉及多个参数,运算过程复杂,而降水距平百分率和降水标准化计算相对容易,且数据容易获得,所以定义降水距平百分率或降水标准化作为划分洪涝致灾的指标。以此指标将洪涝导致减产的风险数值化,得到因洪涝导致减产的风险值分别为:襄樊10.5%,麻城16.1%,荆州4.2%。麻城棉花风险值最大,需要做好洪涝的防范措施。
In order to accurately and quantitatively assess the risk to cotton caused by floods and reduce the floods and disasters, it has caused serious impact and significant losses on cotton in Hubei Province. Based on the meteorological data and growth period data of three agro-meteorological observation stations in Hubei Province for nearly 30 years, Provincial flood risk was studied. The results show that there is a significant correlation between the flood index and the percentage of precipitation anomalies and the normalized sequence of precipitation. The calculation process of flood index involves many parameters and the calculation process is complicated. However, the percentage of precipitation anomaly and rainfall standardization are relatively easy to calculate, and the data are easy to be obtained. Therefore, the percentage of precipitation anomaly or precipitation standardization is defined as an index to distinguish flood disaster. Using this indicator to quantify the risk of floods to reduce production, the risk-reduction values resulting from floods were 10.5% in Xiangfan, 16.1% in Macheng, and 4.2% in Jingzhou. Macheng cotton value of the largest risk, need to do a good flood prevention measures.