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粮食最低收购价政策是国家为了重点保护农民的农作物利益,维持市场稳定,对某些粮食品种确定的最低收购价格。[1]制定合理的最低收购价水平十分重要,为了中国粮食生产的稳定,每年确定一个合理的粮食最低收购价就成为政府部门的一个重要工作。[2]本文忽略国际粮食价格对中国粮食价格的影响,结合影响粮食价格因素,建立了线性回归模型、径向基函数(RBF)的神经网络模型和BP神经网络模型,对历年最低收购价价格的合理性做了评价。并运用BP神经网络模型和线性回归径向基函数(RBF)的神经网络模型分别对2017年最低收购价进行预测,并对三个模型预测值进行了比较分析。
The grain minimum purchase price policy is the lowest purchase price the state has set for certain grain varieties in order to focus on protecting farmers’ crop interests, maintaining market stability. [1] It is very important to set a reasonable minimum purchase price level. For the sake of the stability of China’s grain production, setting a reasonable minimum purchase price for food every year has become an important task of government departments. [2] This article ignores the impact of international food prices on the grain prices in China. Combined with the factors affecting food prices, this paper establishes a linear regression model, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network model and a BP neural network model. The rationality of the evaluation. The BP neural network model and the linear regression radial basis function (RBF) neural network model are respectively used to predict the minimum purchase price in 2017. The predicted values of the three models are compared and analyzed.