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摘要:为了解广州市生态可持续问题，运用生态足迹模型对广州市2003-2013年的人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹进行了模拟和分析，在此墓础上运用ARIMA模型预测了2014-2020年的生态足迹变化趋势结果表明:2003-2013年人均生态足迹呈上升趋势，增幅达到6.7%，人均生态承载力呈下降趋势，人均生态承载力远远小于人均生态足迹，导致生态赤字状态，广州市处于严重不可持续发展状态;2014-2020年人均生态足迹呈上升趋势，2020年达到4.201hm2/人，是2013年的1.02倍，人均生态承载力墓本保持不变，人均生态赤字不断增大针对广州市严重不可持续发展的现状，提出加大环境生态保护力度、控制人口规模、优化产业结构和转变经济发展方式等实现广州市可持续发展的建议.
Abstract: In order to understand the ecological sustainability of Guangzhou, the ecological footprint model was used to simulate and analyze the per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita ecological footprint of Guangzhou from 2003 to 2013. Based on this model, ARIMA model was used to predict the ecological footprint of Guangzhou in 2014-2020 The results show that from 2003 to 2013, the per capita ecological footprint is on an upward trend, with an increase of 6.7%. The per capita ecological carrying capacity shows a downward trend. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is far less than the per capita ecological footprint, resulting in the ecological deficit. Guangzhou, The city is in a state of serious unsustainable development. From 2014 to 2020, the per capita ecological footprint is on an upward trend, reaching 4.201hm2 / person in 2020, 1.02 times that of 2013. The per capita ecological carrying capacity remains unchanged and the per capita ecological deficit is constantly increasing In response to the serious unsustainable development in Guangzhou, suggestions are put forward such as increasing environmental and ecological protection, controlling the population size, optimizing the industrial structure and changing the mode of economic development to realize the sustainable development of Guangzhou.