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数字很枯燥,建立在数字基础之上的经济学,也很难让人获得湿润的感觉。为了对经济大环境和大气候做出准确或不甚准确的评估和预测,经济学家往往会动用到像国民生产总值 GDP、居民消费价格指数 CPI、增量资本产出率 ICOR、股票指数、失业率、就业率、广义货币供应量、狭义货币供应量等等以数字和数学为核心的指标。对于像我们这样的非专业人士来说,是否存在着一种仅靠自己的原始本能(例如肉眼),也能八九不离十地对经济现状和动向做出大致准确之评估的观测方法呢?喜剧盛行时代通常代表牛市,悲剧及恐怖片大卖,则预示熊市将临——这是最
The numbers are boring and economics based on numbers is hard to get wet. In order to make accurate or inaccurate estimates and forecasts of the economic environment and climate, economists often use such indicators as gross domestic product (GDP), CPI, ICOR, stock index, Unemployment rate, employment rate, broad money supply, the narrow money supply and so on figures and mathematics as the core indicators. For nonprofessionals like us, is there an observational method of making a roughly accurate assessment of economic status quo and trends based on their original instincts (such as the naked eye)? The comedy popular times usually represent the bull market, selling tragedies and horror films, then heralding a bear market - this is the most