分支系统学是一种建立在进化树分支模式基础上通过共同祖先为生物分类的方法。美国当代著名科学哲学家艾利奥特.索伯(Elliott Sober)论证了可证伪性对分支系统学合理性辩护的不足之处,指出假说-推理方法的局限性。在此基础上,从可能性的角度探讨了分支简单性与可能性的关系。 Bifurcation is a method of taxonomic classification based on the evolutionary tree branch pattern by a common ancestor. Elliott Sober, a well-known contemporary American philosopher of science, has demonstrated the inadequacies of falsification in justifying the branch system and pointed out the limitations of the hypothesis-reasoning method. On this basis, the author discusses the relationship between the branch simplicity and the possibility from the perspective of possibility.