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为了降低检测需求变化时的库存成本,给出了一种接受/拒绝方法(阈值).该方法的阈值由报童的超出成本、缺货成本、需求变化概率和需求变化幅度共同决定.通过与指数平滑预测方法的对比实验,证明了所提方法可以帮助报童节约更多的库存成本.此外,通过对所提方法的分析发现,随着需求变化幅度的增加,供应链成员对需求变化的判断越来越同步;随着超出(缺货)成本的增加,报童会越来越倾向于对需求增长作出过晚(过早)的反应,而对需求减少作出过早(过晚)的反应.这表明供应链成员在与其他供应链成员进行合作和分享需求信息时应该审慎考虑由不同利润率的产品及不同变化幅度的需求所造成的影响.
In order to reduce the inventory cost when the demand changes, an acceptance / rejection method (threshold) is given.The threshold of the method is determined by the out-of-pocket cost, the out-of-stock cost, the probability of change of demand and the change of demand.With the index The comparison experiment of the smoothing forecasting method proves that the proposed method can help the newsboy to save more inventory cost.In addition, through the analysis of the proposed method, it is found that with the increase of the demand change, the supply chain members judge the change of demand more To be more in line with each other; as the cost of out-of-stock increases, Newsboy will become more and more inclined to react too early (prematurely) to demand growth and too early (too lately) to respond to demand reduction. This indicates that supply chain members should carefully consider the impact of different profit margin products and the demand of different changes when they cooperate with other supply chain members and share the demand information.