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目的定量分析日均气温、相对湿度与犬咬伤就诊人数的关系。方法收集了2008年1月1日至2012年12月31日的北京市三所综合型三甲医院的犬咬伤急诊就诊数据与同期气象数据资料。定量评估日均气温、相对湿度与犬咬伤就诊人数的关系。结果当平均气温>5.6℃时,每升高1℃,犬咬伤日均就诊人数增加2.46%(95%CI:2.36%~2.66%)。当相对湿度<72%时,每增加1%,犬咬伤日均就诊人数增加0.58%(95%CI:0.57%~0.75%)。广义相加模型对犬咬伤月均就诊人数的预报和逐步回归模型对日均人数的预报效果较好,准确率分别为94.3%和99.7%。结论气象因素与犬咬伤就诊人数存在一定的统计关联。
Objective To quantitatively analyze the relationship between average daily temperature, relative humidity and number of dog bites. Methods The data of emergency treatment of canine bites and the meteorological data of the same period were collected from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012 in Beijing Three General Hospital. Quantitatively assess the relationship between average daily temperature, relative humidity and number of canine bites. Results When the average temperature was> 5.6 ℃, the average number of visits per day for dog bites increased 2.46% (95% CI: 2.36% -2.66%) for every 1 ℃ increase. At a relative humidity of <72%, a 1% increase in dog bite daily attendance increased by 0.58% (95% CI: 0.57% -0.75%). Generalized additive model of dog bite monthly average number of visits and step-by-step regression model predicts the average daily number of people better, with an accuracy of 94.3% and 99.7%, respectively. Conclusion There is a certain statistical relationship between meteorological factors and the number of canine bite visits.