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本文运用空间计量方法,利用我国1998-2013年30个省(市、区)的省际面板数据,对金融服务、FDI(外商直接投资)与工业发展之间的内在关系进行考察。研究结果表明:中国工业发展在省域之间具有显著的空间自相关性,即工业生产通过正向的外部溢出效应能促进邻近区域的工业生产;银行信贷对工业发展具有显著的正向促进作用,银行信贷规模的扩大对工业发展水平的提高具有积极的推动作用,而股票市场对工业发展的作用非常微弱且不显著;FDI和城镇化均显著地促进工业发展。在此基础上,提出了促进我国工业结构优化升级的政策建议。
In this paper, spatial measurement method is used to study the relationship between financial services, foreign direct investment and industrial development by using the provincial panel data of 30 provinces (cities and districts) in our country from 1998 to 2013. The results show that: China’s industrial development has significant spatial autocorrelation among provinces, that is, industrial production can promote industrial production in the adjacent area through positive external spillover effect; and bank credit has a significant positive effect on industrial development The expansion of bank credit has a positive effect on the improvement of industrial development. However, the stock market has a very weak and insignificant effect on industrial development. Both FDI and urbanization have significantly promoted industrial development. On this basis, we put forward policy suggestions to promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.