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1980年初,日本经济研究中心发表了一系列对未来十年的中期预测。在这些预测者看来,八十年代资本主义世界经济发展的主要特征是什么呢? 日本专家们首先指出,在未来十年里必然要保留资本主义工业国的“病态”。这种病态的主要症状是失业、通货膨胀、经济萧条和世界经济矛盾的尖锐化。资本主义金融货币体系的危机将继续存在。对目前“浮动”汇率体系进行某种调节的可能性非常小。美元多半会保持其作为国际结算主要货币的作用,可是储备货币“多极化”的趋势将加强,尤其是西德马克和日元的作用将增长。
In early 1980, Japan Economic Research Center published a series of interim projections for the next decade. In the view of these forecasters, what are the main characteristics of the economic development of the capitalist world in the 1980s? Japanese experts first point out that it is inevitable to retain the “pathological” state of the capitalist industrialized countries in the coming decade. The main symptoms of this pathology are unemployment, inflation, the recession and the sharpening of the contradictions in the world economy. The crisis in the capitalist financial and monetary system will continue to exist. There is very little chance of some adjustment to the current “floating” exchange rate system. Most of the dollar will maintain its role as the major currency in international settlements. However, the trend toward a “multi-polarization” of reserve currencies will be strengthened. In particular, the role of the S & D mark and the yen will grow.