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在资本市场中,分析师预测存在“变脸”行为,即分析师的预测会随着股价走势的波动而波动。本文将市场状况(牛市与熊市)、分析师地位(明星与非明星)以及股票性质(成长股与价值股)三者进行配对组合,研究在不同配对组合下分析师预测“变脸”行为对股票特质波动率的影响。结果表明:(1)在牛市中,分析师目标价一致预测“变脸”行为和明星分析师盈利预测“变脸”行为对成长股和价值股的特质波动率均有显著正相关关系;(2)在熊市中,分析师目标价一致预测“变脸”行为和明星分析师盈利预测“变脸”行为对成长股均没有显著影响,而分析师目标价一致预测“变脸”行为对价值股有显著正相关关系,明星分析师盈利预测“变脸”行为对价值股没有显著影响;(3)非明星分析师盈利预测“变脸”行为对股票特质波动率没有显著的影响。本文对于深入了解股票特质波动率影响因素以及分析师预测影响具有现实指导意义。
In the capital markets, analysts predict a “face-change” behavior, in which analysts’ forecasts fluctuate as the stock price moves. In this paper, the market conditions (bull and bear market), analyst status (star and non-star) and the nature of the stock (growth stocks and value stocks) the three pairing combination of different pairing combinations analysts predict “change face” behavior Impact on the Volatility of Stock Traits. The results show that: (1) In the bull market, there is a significant positive correlation between the analysts’ consistent target price forecasting and the “face change” behavior and the star analyst earnings forecasting “change of face” behavior on the trait fluctuation of growth stocks and value stocks ; (2) In the bear market, analysts ’consistent target price forecasting, “face-changing” behavior and star analyst earnings forecasting “change face” have no significant effect on growth stocks, while analysts’ target price consistently predicted “ ”Behavior has no significant effect on the value of shares; (3) non-Star analyst earnings forecast “ change face ”behavior on the stock traits volatility No significant effect. This article is of practical significance in understanding the influencing factors of stock trait volatility and the impact of analysts’ forecasts.