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沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位,然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害时具有较高的脆弱性,即同等灾害强度下,沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多,经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度,分析了影响灾害脆弱性的五个方面,顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势,依据一定的原则,不分灾种,面对区域和人群,选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的指标评价体系,利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行了确定,建立了脆弱性模型,并在收集和标准化数据的基础上,对上海沿海六区县进行了脆弱性评价,并对各个地区的区域脆弱性、人群脆弱性和整体脆弱性进行对比分析,为灾害管理提供理论依据。同时,通过评价结论,总结了沿海城市的自然灾害脆弱性特点,并为上海市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响提供对策建议。
Coastal cities play an important strategic role in global development. However, their special geographic location and highly concentrated population and wealth also determine their vulnerability to disasters. In coastal cities, they suffer from natural disasters under the same disaster intensity The population is more casualty and the economic loss is greater. From the perspective of disaster-bearing system, we analyze five aspects that affect the vulnerability of disaster, follow the tendency of quantitative evaluation of vulnerability, try to select representative index according to certain principles, regardless of disaster, face region and population The evaluation index system for the vulnerability of natural disasters in coastal cities was established. The weights of corresponding indicators in this area were determined by the AHP method. The vulnerability model was established. Based on the collected and standardized data, six districts and counties along the coast of Shanghai Vulnerability evaluation, and comparative analysis of regional vulnerability, population vulnerability and overall vulnerability in various regions to provide a theoretical basis for disaster management. At the same time, through the conclusion of the appraisal, the characteristics of natural disasters vulnerability in coastal cities are summarized, and suggestions are put forward to reduce the vulnerability and mitigate the impact of natural disasters in Shanghai.