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根据大量实测资料,采用多元回归和偏相关分析等方法,分析了不同时期干支流水沙对黄河内蒙古三湖河口至头道拐河段冲淤量的贡献率。结果表明:1952-2012年长系列黄河干流径流量、输沙量和支流十大孔兑输沙量等3个影响变量对干流河道冲淤量的贡献率在汛期分别为20.6%、23.1%和56.3%;年内分别为24.8%、24.7%和50.5%。由此可以看出,十大孔兑来沙对该河段冲淤量影响最大,而干流水沙对该河段冲淤量影响程度相当。1960-1986年时段3个影响变量对冲淤量的贡献率分别为17.6%、17.4%和65.0%;而1987-2012年时段3个影响变量对冲淤量的贡献率分别为8.8%、14.7%和76.5%。由于1987-2012年时段干流来水量大幅度减少,从而导致十大孔兑来沙对该河段冲淤量影响程度进一步提高,贡献率达到76.5%。因此,要想减少该河段的淤积,首先要减少十大孔兑入黄沙量,其次要减少干流来沙和增加干流来水量。
According to a large number of measured data, multiple regression and partial correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the contribution rate of water and sediment of the dry-branch tributaries to the scour and silting in the Yellow River from Sanhuhekou to Taucheokui in the Yellow River. The results showed that the contribution rates of the three influencing variables such as runoff volume, sediment discharge and top ten holes versus sediment transport volume of the Yellow River mainstream from 1952 to 2012 were 20.6% and 23.1% respectively in the flood season 56.3% over the year; 24.8%, 24.7% and 50.5% respectively during the year. It can be seen that the top ten holes to the sand on the impact of the largest amount of scour and silting, and the mainstream of water and sediment erosion and volume of the impact of the extent of considerable. The contribution rates of the three influencing variables to erosion and siltation in the period from 1960 to 1986 were 17.6%, 17.4% and 65.0% respectively, while the contribution rates of the three influencing variables to erosion and siltation in the period from 1987 to 2012 were 8.8% and 14.7%, respectively 76.5%. Due to the drastic reduction of water inflow from the main stream during the period of 1987-2012, the influence of the top ten holes against the erosion and sedimentation of the reach further increased, contributing a rate of 76.5%. Therefore, in order to reduce siltation in this section of the river, it is necessary to reduce the amount of sediment transported into the sediment to the top 10, and secondly to reduce the amount of water coming from and going to the main stream.