论文部分内容阅读
本文基于1998至2010年我国地级以上城市相关数据,考察了经济波动对于长期增长的影响。空间统计检验显示,我国地区增长数据中存在显著的空间依赖,因此本文采用了空间计量模型进行实证分析,结果发现,在控制了传统增长因素和空间依赖因素后,经济波动对长期增长具有显著不利的负面影响。根据计算,由于经济波动而导致实际人均GDP的年均增长率的降幅平均约为0.7个百分点,从长期累积效应来看,这是非常高的福利损失。从政策的角度来看,采取积极的宏观经济调控措施,不仅有利于降低危机冲击的负面效应、确保经济平稳运行,而且对于长期增长具有重要的保障作用。
Based on the data of cities above prefecture level in China from 1998 to 2010, this paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on long-term growth. Spatial statistical tests show that there is a significant spatial dependence in China’s regional growth data. Therefore, this paper uses the spatial measurement model for empirical analysis and finds that after the control of traditional growth factors and space-dependent factors, economic fluctuations have a significant negative impact on long-term growth The negative impact. According to calculations, the real average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita due to economic fluctuations averages about 0.7 percentage points, which is a very high welfare loss in terms of long-term cumulative effects. From a policy perspective, taking positive macroeconomic control measures will not only help to reduce the negative effects of the crisis and ensure a smooth economic operation, but also play an important role in safeguarding long-term growth.