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1998年后新一轮煤炭上升周期于2008年中期结束,尽管宏观经济环境遭遇了比1998年更差的状况,但煤炭行业实体经济运行质量大为改善,企业资金充沛,抗风险能力明显增强。未来两年,煤炭需求回暖仍需等待,产能却将集中释放。惟有推进资源整合、加大限产力度才能谋求供需的基本平衡,预计2010年煤炭需求约29亿吨,过剩产能超过2亿吨。今年煤炭价格低位盘整为主,2007年中期煤价是重要支撑点。
After 1998, a new round of coal rise cycle ended in mid-2008. Despite the worse macroeconomic environment than in 1998, the quality of the real economy in the coal industry has been greatly improved. The enterprises are well-funded and the anti-risk capability is obviously enhanced. In the next two years, the coal demand will still need to be warmed up, while the production capacity will be concentrated. Only by promoting the integration of resources and increasing the limited production capacity can we seek the basic balance between supply and demand. It is estimated that the coal demand in 2010 will be 2.9 billion tons and the excess production capacity will exceed 200 million tons. Coal prices this year, mainly low consolidation, coal prices in mid-2007 is an important support point.