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模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会偏好有精确概率的事件而不是从主观上判断具有相同模糊概率的事件。该现象揭示了人对主观或模糊的不确定的规避程度要大于客观不确定的规避。本文首先介绍了模糊规避的概念界定和二阶概率分配,概率匹配,互补赌注以及同时评价和单独评价等研究范式;接着深入探讨了模糊规避的锚定-调整模型,他人评价假设,能力假设,相比的无知假设等作用机制;然后阐述了模糊规避的影响因素,包括概率的大小、间隔和中值,损益结果,合作/竞争情景,信息缺失,责任感,决策者的禀赋,序列效应以及信息的数量;最后,指出了目前研究的不足与未来的研究趋势。
Fuzzy avoidance means that in the same case of rewards, policymakers prefer events with exact probability rather than subjectively determine events with the same fuzzy probability. This phenomenon reveals that people avoid subjective or ambiguous uncertainty more than objectionable and objective avoidance. This paper first introduces the concept definition of fuzzy avoidance and the research paradigms of second-order probability distribution, probability matching, complementary betting, simultaneous evaluation and individual evaluation. Secondly, the paper deeply discusses the anchor-adjustment model of fuzzy avoidance, the evaluation hypothesis of others, the ability hypothesis, Compared with the ignorance hypothesis and other mechanisms of action; then elaborated the factors that affect the fuzzy avoidance, including the size of the probability, interval and median, profit and loss results, cooperation / competitive scenarios, information loss, responsibility, decision-makers endowments, sequence effects and information Finally, it points out the current research deficiencies and future research trends.