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J.M.凯恩斯是一位著名的经济学家,1911年,年仅28岁就当上了《经济杂志》的编辑,两年之后他又担任了英国皇家经济学会的秘书,但是他仍不间断地为《经济杂志》审定稿子。此后他先后两次在财政部任职,1946年的复活节,即在他与世长辞前的12个月前,被选为皇家经济学会的会长。在担任编辑与秘书双重职务的时候,凯恩斯在经济学会中起了极为重要的作用,他写下了大量的经济方面的著作,单是公开发行的论著,汇集起来就有8卷之多,再加上他的论文、小册子和重要的信件,以及未发表过的文章、资料、社会活动的报道,还有论及社会政治和文学写作,总共达25卷之巨,这是凯恩斯给人类留下的一笔可贵的遗产。然而,凯恩斯全集的第八卷《论概率》却不是一本经济著作,而是一本论述逻辑命题与概率两者之间关系的论著。凯恩斯于1906年在印度办事处工作时,已开始研究概率,并在此之后的五年中付出了辛勤的劳动,终于有了一个雏型。但在1911年之后,由于担任了编辑工作,耽误了《论概率》的进一步加工。1914年之后,凯恩斯又重新开始这项工作,终于在1921年8月正式出版,成为英国逻辑概率思想建立五十五年以来第一部系统性的著作,这一本不同凡响的论著,成了卡尔纳普归纳逻辑理论的先驱。
JM Keynes was a prominent economist who became editor of Economic Magazine at the age of 28 in 1911 and a secretary of the Royal Society two years later but continued without interruption “Economic Journal” approval draft. Since then he has twice served in the Ministry of Finance, Easter 1946, that is, 12 months before his death, was elected president of the Royal Society. Keynes played an extremely important role in the economics society when he was a double editor and secretary. He wrote a large number of economic books. As a result, there were as many as eight books in public circulation. Together with his dissertations, pamphlets and important letters, as well as unpublished articles, materials, social activities, and socio-political and literary writings, a total of 25 volumes of giants, which Keynes gave to human beings Under a valuable heritage. However, the eighth volume of “Key to Probability” of the Keynesian Complete Works is not an economic book but a treatise on the relationship between logical propositions and probabilities. When Keynes worked at the India office in 1906, he began to study probabilities and, after five years of hard work, finally got a prototype. However, after 1911, due to his editorial work, he delayed the further processing of “Probability”. After 1914, Keynes restarted the work and was finally published in August 1921, becoming the first systematic work of the British logic of probabilistic thought fifty-five years since the creation of this extraordinary work Carnap induces the pioneer of logic theory.