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Using Natural Real Exchange Rate model and combining with actual economic situations in Japan,we set up equilibrium real exchange rate model of Japanese Yen.Based on the model we assess the misalignment and also analyze its reason since the beginning of Yen’s fluctuation.Finally we get conclusions as follows: Yen/Dollar real exchange rate has always been fluctuating acutely.Overvaluation alternates with undervaluation,either of which may last three to five years.Japanese government’s too much intervention in nominal exchange rate is a very important factor of the misalignment.Overvaluation does much negative effect on the economy,especially in a period when the economy shrinks due to lacking for domestic consumption demand.In that case,currency crisis will probably soon break out.
Using Natural Real Exchange Rate model and combining with actual economic situations in Japan, we set up equilibrium real exchange rate model of Japanese Yen.Bi.Beta on the model we assess the misalignment and also analyze its reason why the beginning of Yen’s fluctuation. Finaally we get judgments as follows: Yen / Dollar real exchange rate has always been fluctuating acutely.Overvaluation alternates with undervaluation, either of which may last three to five years. Japanese government’s too much intervention in nominal exchange rate is a very important factor of the misalignment .Overvaluation does much negative effect on the economy, especially in a period when the economy shrinks due to lacking for domestic consumption demand.In that case, currency crisis will probably soon break out.