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本文在前人研究的基础上,结合江苏省太湖地区的实际情况,建立和编制经济发展模型: Y=0.9219x_1~(0.4329)·x_2~(0.6433)·x_3~(0.0874)·x_4~(0.1412) (其中:Y为农业总产值;x_1为社员劳动报酬,用以代表投入的劳动量:x_2为生产费用;x_3为农村用电量,用以代表物质技术装备水平;x_4为工、副业产值占农业总产值的比重) 通过经济发展模型,并借助于各经济增长的时序模型,对农业经济发展进行预测。到本世纪末,农业总产值将达到176.63亿元±15％,年递增7.07％,约翻两番。由于技术进步的重大贡献和综合农业的发展,说明“基数大、速度低”并无必然的联系。本区农业经济发展速度经常存在加速的趋势。
Based on the previous studies and the actual situation of Taihu Lake in Jiangsu Province, this paper establishes and compiles the economic development model: Y = 0.9219x_1 ~ (0.4329) · x_2 ~ (0.6433) · x_3 ~ (0.0874) · x_4 ~ (0.1412 ) X (where: Y is the total agricultural output value; x_1 is the remuneration of members, representing the input labor: x_2 for the production costs; x_3 for rural electricity consumption, to represent the level of material and technical equipment; x_4 for the work, sideline output value Accounting for the proportion of total agricultural output) through the economic development model, and with the help of the timing model of economic growth, the development of agricultural economy forecast. By the end of this century, the total output value of agriculture will reach 17.663 billion yuan ± 15%, an annual increase of 7.07%, about quadrupling. Due to the significant contribution of technological progress and the development of integrated agriculture, it is not necessary to conclude that “there is a large base and a low speed”. The speed of agricultural economic development in this area often has the tendency to accelerate.